Harry’s 1pm Picks
For the past few years I’ve waited until week 4 to place an NFL bet to get a sense for how teams actually are. But let’s face it I’m a degenerate gambler.
A lot of storylines this year for the NFL. Will players continue to protest during the national anthem? Will Roger Goodell’s approval ratings continue to plummet? Will Andy Reid ever figure out how the game clock works? There’s something about a new helmet rule, something about Jon Gruden having a stroke, and something about redzone channel lowering TV ratings.
I’ll be honest, I don’t give a shit about any storyline other than the stories I will exaggerate when I tell my friends about how I took all my bookie’s money.
I’m going to try to be smart this week since I’m currently on a bit of a heater and don’t want to lose all my winnings. So let’s get into it.
New Orleans Saints (-9.5) vs Tampa Bay Bucs:
I’m a BIIIIG Fitzpatrick guy.
Actually I’m more of just a big fan of saying things like “Fitzpatrick, so smart” and “Harvard guy.” I’m sure Fitz is a nice guy but no one except for the Jets that one year actually thinks Fitzpatrick can lead a team to victory. Plus I have the Saints defense in one of my fantasy football leagues so I’m all in on believing they are going to be dominant.
A couple of stats for ya. Last year Kamara destroyed the bucs going for 3 touchdowns and 280 yards in 2 games. Michael Thomas is 4 inches taller and 30 lbs of muscle heavier than the cornerback who will be on him all day.
Score prediction: Saints 31 Bucs 16. Look to put the Saints in a teaser as well.
San Francisco (+7) @ Minnesota
Everyone loves the Vikings this year. They went on a serious run last year, they upgraded at quarterback and likely have a top 5 defense. But they have a new offensive coordinator. What if all of their success last year was because of a guy who’s not on the coaching staff anymore? Furthermore, their current offensive coordinator was a QBs coach for the Eagles last year. Last time I heard of a QB coach becoming an offensive coordinator it was Ben MCaDoo, and we all remember what a creep that guy was.
I have no stats to back this up but based on my Twitter timeline and a couple of podcasts it seems like a lot of people are betting the Vikings. Well not this guy. Jimmy G has never lost a game in the NFL. I don’t care if I can’t name 4 offensive weapons on the Niners. You’d have to be an idiot to bet against a guy who wins 100% of the time he steps on the field.
Score Prediction: Niners 24 Vikings 21
Houston @ New England (-7), Over/Under 50
Harry’s stats of the week™: Last year when the Pats played the Texans Brady threw for over 350 yards and 5 TDs. Deshaun Watson played 7 games last year and threw for 19 TDs and rushed for another 2. That’s 3 TDs per game on avg.
Sure I dropped out of math class senior year of high school but you don’t need an AP Calc degree to know that this is going to be a high scoring game.
Score Prediction: Pats 38 Texans 27 Look to include in Teaser.
In Summation:
New Orleans Saints -9.5 against Tampa Bay Bucs
San Francisco 49rs + 7 against Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots -7 against Houston Texans and Over 50 pts
7 pt Teaser: Sants – 2.5, Pats to win, Pats/Texans over 43.
#ChalkItUp as a W then bet the winnings on the later games (blog post tbd)
P.S after I wrote this I thought about my SF bet and the more I think about it the more I think the Vikings defense is going to dominate, but I stand by my call of not betting against JimmyG.
Chalk It Up 