Falcons @ Eagles

I am torn on this game. For starters, I’m a Giants fan so rooting against the Eagles is second nature to me. And you know from reading my NFL Future’s blog that I have the Falcons to win over 9.5 games this season. So why wouldn’t I bet the Falcons tonight against the Eagles?

Let’s look at some numbers.

Thursday Night Game Numbers:

• Favorites are 97-66-5 ATS on Thursdays since 2003.
• The visiting team on Thursday games are 75-87-5 ATS since 2003

If that doesn’t say bet the Eagles I don’t know what does. Granted, since this is the 1st game of the season I’m sure these numbers don’t mean much, since most Thursday night games take place are after 3 days of rest and player aren’t primed for an incredible game. That said, these numbers tell a pretty convincing story and I’m convinced.

Let’s look at some other numbers…

• The Eagles were 13-1 straight up and 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games (hat tip to my friends at OddsShark)
• Atlanta has finished 20th, 28th, and 25th in run-defense DVOA (not sure what this acronym means but all the “experts” talk about it) since Dan Quinn became coach, and has allowed the NFL’s most running back catches in all three years.

Yes Atlanta will want revenge after the Eagles beat them in the playoffs last year and then went on to win the SuperBowl. Yes the spread opened at Eagles -5 and is now basically a pickem. But that tells me there’s lots of folks betting Falcons and when everyone zigs Harry Hunch zags.

DATA related to the Over/Under:

• Thursday night’s total is set at 44.5 points.
• The UNDER is 7-0 over Atlanta’s last seven games.

Harry You’re boring us, get to the point!! Fine.

Both teams rely heavily on the running game. The past 2 times the teams played the Eagles dominated time of possession by about 35 minutes to 25 minutes. Runs + short passes = milking clock. Zach Ertz is Foles’  favorite target, which leads to short completions. Couple that with the fact that last time they played the Eagles kept Matt Ryan to 210 yards and just 1 touchdown on 36 pass attempts.

Harry’s Hunches:

EAGLES PICK

UNDER 44.5

Bonus Final Score Prediction = Eagles 24 Falcons 17

Double Bonus All Da Way Pick = 6.5 Teaser Eagles + 6.5 & Under 51. 

Place your bets and #ChalkItUp as a fun Thursday Night 😉